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sanity-check my mail to a CDC webmaster?
Dec. 4th, 2003 11:25 pm(about http://www.cdc.gov/nip/vacsafe/concerns/gbs/default.htm )
This page seems inconsistent with another on the CDC site, and it appears to me that this page is the one in error. I'm concerned that it may be overstating the historical risk of GBS from the 1976 swine flu vaccination by a factor of six. If so, that could conceivably nudge someone who needs the current influenza vaccine away from getting it.
This page: "The 1976 swine influenza vaccine was shown to increase the rate of GBS by slightly less than one case per 100,000 vaccinations."
A different CDC page, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/flu/vacfacts.htm : "Normally, about one person per 100,000 people per year will develop Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an illness characterized by fever, nerve damage, and muscle weakness. In 1976, about 46 million U.S. residents were vaccinated against swine flu, and 532 of them developed GBS."
I know nothing about GBS; I just noticed that these two pages disagree with each other. Taken together, they say that total GBS in the year following swine flu vaccination is 2 per 100,000: 1 baseline, plus 1 excess. However, 532 per 46 million is only 1.16 per 100,000. Either baseline is 1 per 100,000 and excess is 0.16 per, or the other way around, but they can't both be 1 per, right? Or am I confused?
Just from looking at http://www.guillain-barre.com/overview.html , I think that 1 per 100,000 is more likely the baseline figure, and 0.16 the excess attributable to the swine flu vaccination.
This page seems inconsistent with another on the CDC site, and it appears to me that this page is the one in error. I'm concerned that it may be overstating the historical risk of GBS from the 1976 swine flu vaccination by a factor of six. If so, that could conceivably nudge someone who needs the current influenza vaccine away from getting it.
This page: "The 1976 swine influenza vaccine was shown to increase the rate of GBS by slightly less than one case per 100,000 vaccinations."
A different CDC page, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/flu/vacfacts.htm : "Normally, about one person per 100,000 people per year will develop Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an illness characterized by fever, nerve damage, and muscle weakness. In 1976, about 46 million U.S. residents were vaccinated against swine flu, and 532 of them developed GBS."
I know nothing about GBS; I just noticed that these two pages disagree with each other. Taken together, they say that total GBS in the year following swine flu vaccination is 2 per 100,000: 1 baseline, plus 1 excess. However, 532 per 46 million is only 1.16 per 100,000. Either baseline is 1 per 100,000 and excess is 0.16 per, or the other way around, but they can't both be 1 per, right? Or am I confused?
Just from looking at http://www.guillain-barre.com/overview.html , I think that 1 per 100,000 is more likely the baseline figure, and 0.16 the excess attributable to the swine flu vaccination.
